The Premier League returns on Friday night after a three-week break with the title, up to 11 European places and the three relegation spots all still to be decided.
Spurs have changed head coach again, the pressure on Liverpool’s has increased and Manchester United are still to decide who will be in charge of their team next season.
Add to that there are World Cup squads to be named next month and a series of awards to be dished out before the club campaign is done.
It promises to be a dramatic run-in so, to prepare you for it, we’ve asked five of our writers for their predictions about what happens next.
Can Arsenal really be caught from here?
Liam Tharme: If we assume (boldly) that Manchester City win their game in hand, then the gap is only six points. But I can’t see a two-win difference happening in just seven matches. Arsenal can be unconvincing and tend to tail off at the end of seasons under Mikel Arteta, though City have had too many bad draws in 2026. Opta has Arsenal’s title chances at 96 per cent. I think that’s fair. City might have a reputation for finishing strong, though their title-winning side of old — Ederson, Kevin De Bruyne, Ilkay Gundogan, Riyad Mahrez, Kyle Walker — aren’t here anymore.
Nick Miller: They can… but they won’t. Arsenal are a flawed team and they seem to be constantly fighting against their own neuroses, but they’ve got a nine-point lead over a City side who, in their past two league games, dropped four points against relegation candidates. It might not be a procession, but Arsenal will hold on.
Seb Stafford-Bloor: They can, but I don’t have enough faith in City to believe that they will be. This is not one of those City-Liverpool title races of the recent past, in which every stumble is punished and only perfection will do. In any case, six points is a chasm rather than merely a gap at this point of the season and Arsenal have the luxury of being able to lose at the Etihad next Sunday without the situation becoming too precarious. Their play style is also a great strength. They are not one of those teams who need rhythm and form to win games, and that’s a great advantage at this time of year.
Stuart James: Yes. The lead is nine points, which feels huge, but City have a game in hand and also have to play Arsenal at home. That said, City would probably have to be perfect across their remaining eight fixtures to have any chance. In the past, you would back them to do that and win every match, but you question whether this City team have the capability to do that — they’ve dropped points in 12 matches this season. As for Arsenal, they are there to be shot at — and you get the feeling that people like taking aim. A restorative victory over Sporting CP in the Champions League on Tuesday night will have done them the world of good. I don’t see them passing up this opportunity.
Carl Anka: It would take something remarkable/calamitous for it to happen. The naysayers and Doubting Thomases are too quick to label this Arsenal team a bunch of bottlers. Three second-place finishes have led Arteta to build a football machine with a depth and physicality that opponents struggle to match. They’ve enough bodies and quality to gut it out and outlast City across the run-in.
Would missing out on Champions League qualification hurt Chelsea or Liverpool more?
Tharme: In principle, Liverpool. Having been convincing title winners last season, they have been feeble in this one. City dispatched them in the FA Cup quarter-finals last week, Palace beat them at Anfield in the early Carabao Cup rounds, and any further progression through the Champions League looks very difficult after losing 2-0 away to Paris Saint-Germain in the first leg of their quarter-final on Wednesday. They might only have a Champions League place to play for by the end of Tuesday and need to avoid a repeat of their awful title defence in 2020-21.
Miller: It depends on what is meant by ‘hurt’: it’s certainly more likely to inspire some sort of introspection at Liverpool, because Chelsea will just carry on with their policy of trading young players like they’re NASDAQ stocks and hope it works a bit better next season. To go from runaway champions to outside the top five in a season would be a bigger blow to Liverpool’s pride, if nothing else.
Stafford-Bloor: It’s a hard question to answer, because Chelsea seem to be more of an investment portfolio than a traditional football club. At the very least, they seem less dependent upon the usual type of success and more concerned with a more abstract definition of “value” and what their individual players are worth.
What does something as arbitrary as Champions League qualification even mean in that context? There’s presumably a very smart, jargon-heavy answer for that, but I’m not clever enough to know what it is. So let’s say Liverpool. It would make the criticism of last summer’s recruitment — £449million ($603m) spent — even sharper and, if it’s not already, make coach Arne Slot’s position close to untenable.
Champions Liverpool have endured a difficult season (Carl Recine/Getty Images)
James: Liverpool. They won the Premier League last season and spent a fortune on the back of that success. The drop-off has been alarming. To miss out on qualifying for the Champions League, as well as failing to win any silverware, would be a huge blow and, you would imagine, hard to explain to the club’s owners. Chelsea… I’m not even sure what they’re trying to be these days.
Anka: There are multiple, interconnected reasons for their drop-off, but Liverpool haven’t looked the same since their Champions League last-16 exit against Paris Saint-Germain just over a year ago. It will take sharp recruitment and an even sharper pre-season to correct their more troubling issues. The Thursday-Sunday treadmill of Europa League football makes it harder for clubs to fit in training time on the grass, as their Fridays become a rest day. Liverpool will need that training time next season to help correct their out-of-possession structure.
The final Premier League top five, in order, will be:
Tharme: Arsenal, Manchester City, Manchester United, Aston Villa and Chelsea.
Miller: Arsenal, City, Villa, United, Liverpool.
Stafford-Bloor: Arsenal, City, United, Liverpool, Villa.
James: Arsenal, City, United, Villa and Liverpool.
Anka: Arsenal, City, United, Villa and Liverpool.
Should Liverpool stick with Arne Slot if they miss out?
Tharme: I think sacking him would not fix the problem of having spent too much on too many good forwards who do not naturally fit together. Signing Alexander Isak, Hugo Ekitike and Florian Wirtz in one window was reckless as a shopping spree. Mohamed Salah leaving this summer might help, because then they can focus clearly on how to shape the attack. The problems run deeper than Slot, though his repeated comments earlier this season about facing long balls became jarring quickly.
Miller: Probably not. He was dealt a bad hand by their incoherent transfer window last summer, but has played it badly. It’s difficult to put your finger on the root cause of them constantly conceding late goals this season, but it isn’t having an expensive, lop-sided attack.
Stafford-Bloor: No, I don’t think so. Beyond a top-four place, there is nothing left for Liverpool to play for this season — it’s really hard to make any sort of case for further Champions League progression now they’re 2-0 down after the away leg of their quarter-final against Paris Saint-Germain — meaning that Slot has no real way of altering the mood that surrounds him. Once enough supporters have emotionally moved on from a coach or manager and decided that his removal is a necessity, a club either have to follow through with a change or risk a deteriorating atmosphere.
Something’s amiss, too. The squad seems frayed and a few players have begun acting out; it feels irreversible now, in the way that decaying culture often does.
James: No. It feels a bit harsh to say that, mindful that Slot overachieved in his 2024-25 debut season, when Liverpool won the title. Does that mean he deserves an opportunity to put things right next time? The problem is that it feels as though Slot has been trying to put things right for most of this season and has been unable to come up with the answers. What reason is there to think that will change if he stays on? There’s also the fact that Xabi Alonso is currently available.
Anka: I wouldn’t recommend it. My apologies for comparing one Dutch football manager to another, but Slot’s second season at Liverpool bears a lot of hallmarks to Erik ten Hag’s at Manchester United in 2023-24. Liverpool’s off-ball structure is dreadfully naive/overambitious and — for whatever reason — the players lack the running power needed to make it work. Slot has been dealt a strange hand. He’s also playing that hand badly. Alonso is the obvious candidate to replace him. Make it so.
Is appointing Roberto De Zerbi a good decision by Spurs?
Tharme: It’s a bold one. They certainly seized the opportunity of him leaving Marseille and, at the very least, he is a long-standing target, and his football embodies the club motto. I have major question marks over him implementing his patterns and tactics quickly enough, if he has the right midfielders to make it work, how (or if) he’s going to fix the leaky defence, and how they deal with repeat injury issues. It’s certainly going to be fireworks.
Miller: It’s a strange situation, because they’ve probably appointed the same guy when they’re desperately fighting against a humiliating relegation as they would’ve done had they finished a slightly disappointing sixth and needed a change of approach. I think they will probably stay up, but I don’t know if he will be good for them in the long term. This is all from a football perspective: from a personal point of view, it was a bad decision to appoint someone who actively advocated for the signing of Mason Greenwood, and has spoken about him so unequivocally, despite De Zerbi’s recent apology.
Stafford-Bloor: In isolation, sure. They had to make a change one way or another, and he was probably the most talented coach available to them. That being said, the finances and the length of his contract (five years) are troubling. The club’s negotiating position was weak and shaped by desperation, meaning that they ceded an awful lot of power to a famously volatile coach. It will seem smart if they avoid relegation, but let’s see where they are in October or, say, after the first disagreement on a transfer target.
The more serious point, of course, concerns his comments about Greenwood. Any time a club make a decision that alienates part of their fanbase, it has, regardless of the issue, been handled something less than perfectly. All things remaining equal, it’s very difficult to see De Zerbi earning the universal faith that successful eras generally depend upon.
Spurs could be in the bottom three on Saturday morning (Alex Pantling/Getty Images)
James: Crikey, I think I’d rather try to answer the final question in my maths exam in 1992. Turning to De Zerbi is a gamble for all sorts of reasons — his volatile personality and distinct playing style (which requires time to implement, and the right players too) among them. But does the fact that he’s a long-term appointment mean that Spurs will get someone who is more invested in dragging the team clear, rather than a firefighter who knows they won’t be picking up the pieces if it goes wrong?
I have to say that my initial reaction to the news that De Zerbi is taking over was that they will now stay up. Why and how that will happen is harder to explain. I guess I just see him galvanising a beleaguered group of players and giving them some direction. Uniting the fanbase behind him will be more difficult — probably impossible — because of the way in which he had spoken about Greenwood at Marseille.
Anka: A football club who have run out of ideas hire a manager known for a specific idea. Sometimes it works and the manager breathes new life into the institution (Jurgen Klopp at Liverpool, Mauricio Pochettino at Spurs). Sometimes it doesn’t (Ruben Amorim at Manchester United, Graham Potter at both Chelsea and West Ham). De Zerbi is a volatile character and his teams are often streaky in terms of results. Tottenham should just about avoid relegation this season, but I doubt De Zerbi will be in their dugout at the start of 2027-28.
What else will decide the relegation battle?
Tharme: Wolverhampton Wanderers. They play West Ham, Leeds and Spurs in their next three matches. Under Rob Edwards, they have found some form and finally can score more than once in a match. They are the most winnable game left for every side but playing one of your relegation rivals is a horrible task, tactically.
Miller: West Ham rediscovering some of the momentum they had with that great winning run in January… Nottingham Forest balancing Europe (albeit possibly for only two more games) and domestic matters… Leeds figuring out how to score some goals… Tottenham not folding like last week’s newspaper when they go behind.
Stafford-Bloor: Injuries. Leeds losing Anton Stach during the FA Cup game against West Ham could potentially be devastating. The sight of Axel Disasi reaching for his hamstring in the same game surely made some hearts skip a beat in the East End. Conversely, if Tottenham can keep their current group fit and available, maybe with Mohammed Kudus returning in a few weeks, then that could help produce some new-manager bounce.
Wolves will have a significant say in who goes down with them (Stuart Leggett/MI News/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
James: As Liam has already flagged, Wolves will have a big say by virtue of the fact that they’re playing three of the strugglers in quick succession. As for the clubs involved in the fight for survival, mentality and the ability to cope with the pressure will be huge. What experience do these Spurs players have of that? I also think about the motivation and incentive to stay up – some players will be comfortable in the knowledge that they’ll be playing top-flight football next season regardless, while others know that relegation will have significant consequences for them personally. I’d suggest there will be more of the latter in the Leeds squad, and maybe that will help them.
There’s probably a simpler answer to this question, too: VAR.
Anka: Wolves have made marked strides since their 4-1 defeat to Manchester United in early December to become a banana-skin fixture for more than one club. They’re still going down, but now play with a confidence that is beyond the four clubs above them in the table. Their January victory over West Ham is perhaps the most important result of the entire relegation battle. If they repeat the trick at the London Stadium on Friday, things are over.
… And who is going down?
Tharme: Forest, Wolves and Burnley, in that order.
Miller: Wolves, Burnley and… today I’m saying Leeds, on the basis that they’re trending in the wrong direction, albeit with a decent fixture list. The day after, it might be Tottenham. The day after that, Forest. The day after… you get the idea.
Stafford-Bloor: Wolves, Burnley and Leeds. That’s said with no confidence whatsoever and mainly because I can’t bring myself to put Tottenham in there. But Leeds’ form is a real worry and they have some really awkward-looking games ahead.
James: Wolves and Burnley, obviously. As for the final place… it’s impossible to answer this question with any conviction. You wonder whether Leeds will get reeled in now, but they have a couple of very winnable home games in the next month against Wolves and Burnley. They also go to Spurs and West Ham in two of their final three matches. I don’t like the look of Forest’s run-in. I think De Zerbi somehow get Tottenham over the line. It’s West Ham. But don’t hold me to that.
Anka: More than one Tottenham fan has pointed out Ange Postecoglou’s results as Forest manager might be the thing that keeps Spurs up. Wolves, Burnley, West Ham.
The biggest underachievers of the season so far are…
Tharme: Newcastle. I’m ignoring Spurs in this because they were so poor in the league last season, too. It feels like a repeat of 2023-24 for Eddie Howe’s side where they fail to adjust — and learn lessons — of balancing European football with domestic matches. A talented squad who are unplayable on their day, but were abject in away matches early in the season.
Miller: You could make a good case for Forest, having spent £200million last summer only to be in the same position as they were a year ago, with a decent first XI but alternatives they can’t really trust. Or Newcastle. Or Liverpool. But let’s not overthink this. Lads, it’s Tottenham.
Stafford-Bloor: Spurs, and there’s nobody else in the conversation. There have been injuries, of course, and that has clearly had a profound effect on squad balance and performance, but a core of (available) senior players have consistently let themselves down, while also pointing fingers at absolutely everybody else — the first head coach, the board, the fans, the second head coach, the media.
Eddie Howe’s Newcastle have struggled in the league throughout the season (Stu Forster/Getty Images)
The injuries explain why their season has been bad but not why it still threatens to be a disaster. There are certainly conversations to be had about how the club are run, regardless of how this season ends, but this playing group find themselves in this situation because they have allowed it to happen.
James: My instinct is to say Liverpool, mindful of their spending spree in the summer, which included breaking their transfer record twice. But, ultimately, it’s hard to look beyond the terrible mess that is Tottenham Hotspur.
Anka: When Match of the Day releases its end-of-season montage, there will be some clips of Liverpool’s fast start to the campaign. Four consecutive wins had us thinking they’d “won the transfer window” and it was the start of a new dynasty.
The biggest overachievers of the season so far are…
Tharme: Brentford, by miles. If they stumble from here and miss out on a European spot, I think it would be an underachievement given their quality and cohesion. Having repeatedly sold big names in recent seasons and also lost their head coach last summer, their reinvention has been outstanding. They were a relegation shout in August, and now Igor Thiago is chasing Erling Haaland for the Golden Boot.
Miller: It’s Brentford, who have pulled a trick they were famous for in the Championship — the old ‘lose your best player (and your other best player, plus your manager) but somehow get better’ routine. But let’s also hear it for Everton, or more specifically, for David Moyes: they were a point above the relegation zone when he was reappointed in January last year, and they’re now on for their best finish in a decade, Europe and with a little glimmer of an outside chance of a Champions League place.
Stafford-Bloor: Everybody has gone for Brentford, and I agree, but I also want to be different, so… Everton. Did anybody look at that squad before the season began and imagine that they would be anything other than lower-mid-table stragglers? The Jack Grealish loan briefly provided something mercurial, but Moyes has certainly got more from that group than I was expecting.
Loanee Jack Grealish has helped David Moyes’ Everton overachieve (Alex Burstow/Getty Images)
James: Brentford, without question. Last summer, they lost their manager, their captain, their goalkeeper and two of their front three. Plenty of us thought they would struggle and that new coach Keith Andrews could be here today and gone tomorrow. Instead, they’re seventh, only three points off fifth place with seven games remaining. Superb.
Anka: Everyone has given Brentford their flowers, so let me give Sunderland a bouquet here. Championship play-off winners have had a tough time the following season in recent years, but they’ve been excellent. The signing of Granit Xhaka was inspired. It’s fun to watch a striker of Brian Brobbey’s body type run about the Premier League. Regis Le Bris is a solutions-oriented head coach who doesn’t allow his collection of underdogs to view themselves as underpowered. They’re not getting relegated and have beaten Newcastle home and away. That’s a great season.
What else are you looking forward to seeing settled in the final weeks of the season?
Tharme: The race for Europe. Seven points separate Liverpool in fifth and 13th-placed Bournemouth. It should be a proper scrap.
Miller: The battle of Manchester United vs recent history: will a radical improvement under a club-hero caretaker appointment mean they do the same thing again, or heed the lessons of the past? (I have no real opinion on this: Michael Carrick and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer are different characters/managers and Solskjaer wasn’t really that bad.)
Stafford-Bloor: The race for the final European places promises to be a real scramble. With 21 points left to play for, even Newcastle and Bournemouth — 12th and 13th respectively — are still in contention. I have no horse in the race, but it would be fun to see how, for instance, Brentford’s recruiting policy adapts to having to play continental football.
James: The England squad. Now’s the time for players to turn it on, bearing in mind how many places are up for grabs in Thomas Tuchel’s World Cup squad. Could a 16-year-old Max Dowman make a late dash? Or how about Danny Welbeck, aged 35, gatecrashing the party?
Anka: Can Bruno Fernandes break the Premier League’s 20-assists-in-a-season record? Probably not, but it should be fun watching him try!
